GMT Research is an accounting research firm which develops proprietary methodologies to detect financial anomalies, or traits similar to past accounting shenanigans, at publicly listed companies. It is based in Hong Kong, focused on Asia and regulated by Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission. The firm advises investment institutions around the world. For more information please visit our Terms of Use or About Us pages.
Operating Cash Flow Reconciliation
Operating cash flow that lags reported profit can be an indication of problematic accounting, suggesting that profits are being recognised in advance of when cash is received. A high level of accruals has been shown to be a useful predictor of future share price underperformance. Our Operating Cash Flow Reconciliation model is designed to highlight companies with a high level of accruals. The model will flash red each year that a company reports operating cash flow less than 20% of adjusted cash earnings but the model is only triggered when operating cash flow is low for two consecutive years. If triggered, a working capital analysis should be conducted to determine if the shortfall relates to a deterioration in terms of trade, aggressive revenue recognition or something else. We have designed a supplementary spreadsheet to aid this analysis which can be downloaded below.
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